MICHAEL M. SANTIAGO / Getty Images via AFP
Trump: the Supreme Court opens the debate on his criminal immunity and holds “the future of the ex-president in its hands” (Photo of Donald Trump in front of the New York Supreme Court on January 11, 2024)
UNITED STATES – This is a date that Donald Trump was waiting for with great impatience: this Thursday, April 25, the debate opens in the American Supreme Court on the criminal immunity of the former president for acts committed when he was still in power. A hope for the ex-president, who could thus escape several criminal trials which threaten him. A doubly unprecedented fact in American history, since he is also a candidate for the presidential election in November and favorites in most polls.
The former president is the target of several proceedings for having tried to overturn his electoral defeat in 2020 in the case of electoral fraud in Georgia. Another trial awaits him for the concealment of classified documents, as well as a third, linked to the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. As for the trial for the falsification of the accounts of the Trump Organization as part of the affair Stormy Daniels, he started on April 16. A deadline that he tried to push back on multiple occasions.
Surrounded on all sides, Donald Trump claims absolute immunity for acts committed while he was in the White House. But what will happen during the hearing at the Supreme Court? What does he have to gain, what does he have to lose and – above all – what could this change for the election which takes place in six months? Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, lecturer at Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye and author of a thesis on the United States, answered questions from HuffPost.
HuffPost: Concretely, what will the Supreme Court have to respond to from this Thursday?
Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy: The question that will arise is: to what extent does a former president enjoy immunity for actions that were taken while in office? Donald Trump says he wants immunity for everything, but the Supreme Court holds his future in its hands. She has already rejected certain arguments put forward by the candidate, in particular that of the doctrine of the separation of powers which says that in view of his function, he is protected from criminal and legal proceedings.
There is some precedent in American history for this…
Yes, we know the precedent Nixon vs Fitzgerald in 1982. The Supreme Court declared that the ex-president benefited from absolute immunity, his civil liability having been engaged by acts carried out in the exercise of his functions. But for Trump this is not a civil trial, it is criminal. This is one of the elements of the debate.
There is another precedent, that of the Bill Clinton vs. Jones trial in 1997, when a former official accused the ex-president of having sexually assaulted her while he was governor. The Supreme Court ruled that he could not benefit from immunity since it happened before he was president and that, moreover, it did not fall within the scope of presidential functions (but his private life). .
This is also what the debate will focus on: in the accusations aimed at Trump, what can be considered as done within the framework of his official mission as president?
In this case, even if immunity is granted to Donald Trump, he will not be spared in his criminal trial in the Stormy Daniels affair?
No, he cannot be immunized in this matter since it happened long before he was president. Either way, he’s going to have to face it. If he is tried before the presidential election and is found guilty, he will still be able to run, but it will have an impact on his campaign. Because that would make him a habitual criminal, a criminal, a convict who would run for office.
If he is found guilty in this case and is still elected, will he be able to pardon himself?
A president can only pardon himself at the federal level. So no, in this case he will not be able to, because he will have been judged within the framework of the State. Ditto in the case of the electors in Georgia. However, this will not prevent him from being president, because you can be elected even if you have been convicted in a state.
And what about the other two trials where he will be tried at the federal level?
Already, a priori, the deadlines are too short for it to be judged between now and the election. It’s already unlikely for the classified documents trial, but if it ever happens, he could pardon himself. If he has not yet been tried and he becomes president, he can simply order his justice minister to close the cases.
But again, even if he were found guilty in the classified documents affair or in the Capitol assault affair, that would not prevent him from being president.
When can we expect a decision from the Supreme Court?
The deadline will depend on the time it takes the judges to find a majority answer. This could take between ten days and two weeks…or it could also happen at the end of June, as that is the end of the session for the judges.
Furthermore, we should not expect a black or white answer: there will be no decision of total immunity or absence of immunity. Judges may decide that certain acts will be covered, and others not. Then there may still be calls. So even after this decision, there is little chance that the trial for unlawful attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which was postponed until March 4 pending this verdict, will take place before August or September . At that point, the judge could say that it’s too close to the election, and it will be postponed until after the presidential election.
What if Trump is elected president?
The trial would likely be postponed until after Trump’s term to avoid an untenable situation. Because imagine if he is found guilty. We couldn’t put him under house arrest, it’s impossible: we can’t prevent the President of the United States from traveling.
Afterwards, this is a scenario that we have absolutely never seen. Every day I wake up and say to myself “ I’m dreaming, this story is fiction “.
Finally, there is the last scenario, the worst for him. If he is not elected and does not have immunity, the outcome will be very hard for Donald Trump since he will not be able to pardon himself or dismiss the cases. He plays a huge role in this presidential election… and not just his position! If he loses, we will have to think about what is likely to happen, his reaction and that of his supporters who, as we know, can be very violent.
Also see on The HuffPost:
