The staggering quantities of water that flooded the streets of Dubai have obviously raised questions about their origin. The two hypotheses that have been cited the most are, a worsening of rains linked to global warming, and that of a geoengineering experiment which would have gone wrong. And yet, in the opinion of the government, as in the opinion of scientists, these two hypotheses should perhaps… be ruled out!
A week after the catastrophic floods that hit Dubai, the city is still struggling to drain all the water and deal with the damage in the streets and inside buildings. The equivalent of a year and a half to two years of rain fell locally in certain areas of the desertdesert. It has never rained so much in the space of 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates. Enough to think of a non-natural origin, especially in a country that regularly practices geoengineering. And yet, the National Meteorological Center in the United Arab Emirates told CNBC that no cloud seeding experiments had been conducted in the days or hours before the severe storms.
No evidence that climate change played a role
For his part, the organism Climameterthe aim of which is to determine the causes of phenomena weather reportweather report extremes, published his analysis. This event is described as unique, and above all, the researchers believe that there is no evidence that the torrential rains were significantly worsened by human-caused climate change. They attempted to compare the intensity of these rainstorms to other similar events in the past (1979-2001) to understand the differences. Depressions of this type are slightly deeper today (between 2001 and 2023) than they were in the past, and very slightly rainier (3 mm more). Temperatures have increased on average +1°C and weather conditions are generally increasingly drier in the region. There is no clear evidence to suggest that warming led to more precipitation in this situation, although it remains possible.
An event so unique that it is difficult to draw conclusions
On the other hand, the authors believe that natural parameters, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (variations in ocean surface temperature) certainly played a role. Natural variability therefore probably generated a very intense depression, a very rainy cold drop, also, perhaps a little aggravated by warming, but without certainty.
However, let us point out that the authors of the study still believe that their conclusions are not completely reliable due to the unique nature of the torrential rains in the area. It is precisely when a phenomenon tends to recur over time that it is possible to draw conclusions and link known causes to the catastrophe, but in the case of Dubai, the event occurred in a manner completely isolated in time.
Are the torrential rains in Dubai linked to an experience that got out of hand?
Article by Karine Durand, written on April 17, 2024
The equivalent of almost two years of rain fell in part of the United Arab Emirates this Tuesday in a dazzling manner. The desert, the city and the airport of Dubai were submerged in water. While some point to the influence of climate change, others raise the question of cloud seeding.
The city of Dubai was engulfed in torrential rainfall this Tuesday: 127 mm of rain fell in 24 hours, the equivalent of more than a year and a half of rain, and locally two years of rain for other cities (more than 250 mm).
Looking at satellite images, we can see that several thunderstorms in a row passed through the United Arab Emirates. These ultra-violent cells drew their energyenergy in the abnormally warm waters of the Persian Gulf.
These storms formed in connection with a depression blocked in the area, a cold drop, itself trapped by the undulations of the jet streamjet stream during many days.
The question of an experience which would have degenerated
It is now accepted by the scientific community that global warming increases the quantity of rain in depressions and in storm clouds, it is therefore highly probable that the global rise in temperatures has aggravated the phenomenon.
But the UAE is also known for its many cloud seeding experiments. The government regularly uses this controversial technique which consists of injecting products into already existing clouds, to cause more rain in the driest areas.
The effects are variable and the results are not always there. Could this torrential precipitation therefore be linked to cloud seeding which has degenerated? Without confirmation from the government, it is not possible to confirm this.
The sand also seeds the clouds
Remember that even if this Tuesday’s event is exceptional, the Emirates are often affected by very rainy storms, a phenomenon partly linked to particles of sandsand of the desert which also play a role in naturally seeding clouds. The day before, Algeria had also been affected by exceptional rains linked to the same weather situation with, again, the equivalent of a year of rain falling in Ghardaia and Ouargla.
